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Policy Matrix
Pathway Descriptions

Policy Matrix

  • Electricity Sector
  • Electricity consumption
  • BAU (Cth, March 2015)
  • AEMO (2016): Strong consumption
  • AEMO (2015) Medium consumption
  • AEMO (2016): Neutral consumption
  • AEMO (2016): Weak consumption
  • AEMO (2015): Low consumption
  • Regulated Exit of Coal Generation
  • Existing coal refurbished to provide electricity growth
  • No extensions of economic life for coal-fired generators.
  • Exit of 1 large brown-coal generator by 2018 (e.g. Hazelwood)
  • Exit of 2 large brown-coal generators by 2020 (Hazelwood and Yallourn)
  • 45-year limit on existing coal generators (phase out by 2035)
  • Complete phase out by 2030
  • Distributed Solar PV
  • 7% p.a. increase (avg.) in generation
  • 9% p.a. increase (avg.) in generation
  • 10% p.a. increase (avg.) in generation
  • 11% p.a. increase (avg.) in generation
  • 19% p.a. increase (avg.) in generation
  • 28% p.a. increase (avg.) in generation
  • Renewable Energy Target (State and Federal)
  • Federal LRET
  • "real 20%": 27TWh by 2020 (30 TWh)
  • Current LRET: 33 TWh by 2020 (38 TWh)
  • 30% renewables by 2030 (77 TWh)
  • 50% renewables by 2030: Labor (136 TWh)
  • 90% renewables by 2030: Greens policy (254 TWh)
  • 100% clean energy by 2030 (277 TWh)
  • State Renewable Energy
  • No State Targets
  • Existing renewables and 100% ACT by 2020
  • 50% renewables in SA by 2025
  • 40% renewables in VIC by 2025 (61 TWh total)
  • 50% renewables in QLD by 2030 (93 TWh total)
  • 30% renewables NSW by 2030 (124 TWh total)
  • National Energy Productivity Plan & Technology Improvements
  • Energy Efficiency Improvement
  • 0 TWh by 2030
  • 3 TWh by 2030
  • 9 TWh by 2030
  • 19 TWh by 2030
  • 38 TWh by 2030
  • 57 TWh by 2030
  • Vehicle Efficiency
  • 148 g/km fleet average target in 2025
  • 135 g/km fleet average target in 2025 (Target C)
  • 119 g/km fleet average target in 2025 (Target B)
  • 105 g/km fleet average target in 2025 (Target A)
  • 91 g/km fleet average target in 2025
  • 76 g/km fleet average target in 2025
  • Electricity Vehicle Usage
  • <1% of passenger Vehicle Kilometers Travelled (VKT) are electric (2030)
  • 1% of passenger (VKT) are electric (2030)
  • 4% of passenger (VKT) are electric (2030)
  • 10% of passenger (VKT) are electric (2030)
  • 30% of passenger (VKT) are electric (2030)
  • 99% of passenger (VKT) are electric (2030)
  • Low Emissions Vehicles (hybrid) usage
  • 14% of passenger (VKT) are hybrids (2030)
  • 15% of passenger (VKT) are hybrids (2030)
  • 25% of passenger (VKT) are hybrids (2030)
  • 36% of passenger (VKT) are hybrids (2030)
  • 50% of passenger (VKT) are hybrids (2030)
  • 95% of passenger (VKT) are hybrids (2030)
  • Fugitive Emissions Improvements
  • 77% increase on 2000 levels
  • 30% increase on 2000 levels
  • 15% increase on 2000 levels
  • 9% increase on 2000 levels
  • 3% increase on 2000 levels
  • 4% decrease on 2000 levels
  • Land-sector Policy
  • Emissions Reduction Fund (Land Sector ACCUs)
  • No ERF
  • ERF auctions 1 & 2 only
  • $2.55B total
  • $3.5B total
  • $5B total
  • $10B total
  • Land-clearing Regulation
  • BAU
  • High: 2016 rates of land clearing continue
  • Current policy forecast
  • Low: Reverse the Newman Gov (2013) land clearing laws
  • No net emissions from land sector
  • Phase-out Deforestation by 2030
  • Synthetic GHG Management Program
  • Synthetic GHG Management Program
  • BAU
  • Current policy forecast
  • 43% Reduction
  • 65% Reduction
  • 85% Reduction
  • 100% Reduction
  • Pathway Descriptions

  • Pathway name
  • Description
  • Government projection
  • Australian Government’s 2014-15 emissions projection (March, 2015). Source: Department of Environment (Cth).
  • RepuTex reference
  • RepuTex current policy forecast, assuming current economic growth and electricity consumption forecasts. This emissions projection is applied as our abatement baseline (referred to as our emissions reference) in all non-Government pathways.
  • RepuTex reference (with baselines)
  • RepuTex current policy forecast with distance to target in 2030 solved through the allocation of uniform linear baseline reductions for safeguard facilities from 2020. Baselines are set from current reported (‘high point’) levels.
  • Government Policy (900Mt)
  • Australian Government “indicative emissions sources 2020-2030” pathway, representing approximately 900Mt of indicative emissions reductions. For this pathway we apply a higher emissions baseline (RepuTex CPF1) to replicate the government’s exclusion of climate policies such as the ERF. The modelled abatement task subsequently starts higher than our in-house task for CPF2. The modelled abatement of 900Mt results in a projection shortfall to the 2030 target because absolute emissions in 2020 are not –assumed to start from 5 per cent below 200 levels as expressed by the government. Refer to “Meeting Australia’s 2030 target”(November 2015) for more information.
  • Electricity Decarbonisation
  • This pathway assumes the enhancement of policy for the purpose of decarbonising the electricity sector. The pathway assumes the scale up of policy settings to meet Australia’s 26 per cent emissions reduction target, such as the phase-out of coal fired generation, very high energy efficiency improvement and usage of electric vehicles.
  • Equal share pathway
  • This pathway assumes the equal contribution of safeguard and non-safeguard polices to meet Australia’s 26 per cent emissions reduction target, with the apportionment of safeguard sector contributions at approximately 50 per cent of the abatement task.
  • Land abatement
  • This pathway assumes the enhancement of policy for the purpose of optimising investment in the land-sector, notably the development of longer term carbon sequestration projects via the Emissions Reduction Fund and the tightening of state-based land clearing regulations.
  • Cost-effective Policy Mix
  • This pathway assumes the enhancement of policy for the purpose of prioritising societally cost-effective emissions reductions to meet Australia’s 26 per cent emissions reduction target, over longer-term strategic emissions reduction sources. For example, cost saving energy and transport efficiency policies are prioritised over higher marginal-cost activities such as renewable energy and land sequestration.
  • Integrated Policy (26 & 28 per cent)
  • RepuTex integrated policy pathways assume the enhancement of policy for the purpose of balancing the cost of emissions reductions with longer-term strategic outcomes. Policy is designed to be scalable and broad based across the economy, ensuring balanced effort-sharing and the contribution of key sectors such as electricity generation and land-use, along with the more industrial safeguard sectors.
  • Transport and Industrial
  • This pathway assumes the enhancement of policy to focus on emissions reductions from the Transport and Industrial sectors. Policies in this scenario are designed to limit the contribution of the safeguard mechanism by prioritising abatement from energy productivity and synthetic GHG emissions.