Analysis indicates that Australia’s official greenhouse gas emissions projections – used by the government in its submission to the United Nations ahead of December’s climate conference in Paris – are ‘systemically overstated’, with lower electricity demand and resource export growth forecast to result in 200 million tonnes of CO2e being cut from Australia’s official projections over the next five years.
This will bring Australia’s 2020 emissions reduction target within reach, albeit due to factors outside the government’s control. We continue to project that the Emissions Reduction Fund will contribute one-third of all abatement by 2020, or 120 Mt/CO2e.
Notably, analysis indicates that the international community may be right to question Australia’s emissions ambition, with write-downs likely to be brought-forward as an accounting benefit rather than translated into greater post-2020 target ambition – effectively inflating Australia’s starting point.
Chart: Business as usual emissions projections, Government versus RepuTex update