UPDATE: Uptick in volumes expected at sixth ERF auction

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

RepuTex today published its Outlook for the sixth ERF auction, to be held on December 6-7.

In line with auction five, we believe negative sentiment will again undermine the sixth ERF auction, with low participation likely to result in low volumes of abatement against initial auction events. We anticipate a small uptick in total auction volumes, albeit from a low base set in auction five, however negative sentiment is expected to again weigh down the market. Inversely, this is expected to flow through to higher contract prices, with modelling indicating a broad spread of contract prices is likely. Simulations suggest a high percentage of abatement may be contracted by the Regulator, extending the top of the auction bid stack, leading to a number of bidders contracting at prices well above the average price disclosed by the Regulator.

This suggests positive outcomes for participants, with conservative strategies at some risk of leaving notable upside on the table as the shape of the auction bid stack changes around the 50 per cent threshold.

To access our full ERF auction outlook and simulations, please CLICK HERE >>

To access our ACCU supply pipeline, click here, or to view our Project Pipeline, please click here.

Kind Regards,
The RepuTex Team
Australian Emissions Markets

LATEST UPDATES

  • UPDATE: Uptick in volumes expected at sixth ERF auction

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex today published its Outlook for the sixth ERF auction, to be held on December […]

  • UPDATE: Outlook for ACCU Supply and Prices in Australia to 2030

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As discussion increases over the role of domestic and international carbon credits in Australia, in […]

    Carbon Market Update, Research Insights | November 13th, 2017
  • INSIGHTS: Domestic offsets may be $5-10 under NEG & safeguards

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As discussion increases over the role of domestic and international carbon credits in Australia, in […]

    Insights, Research Insights | November 13th, 2017
  • WEBINAR: Outlook for ACCU Supply and Prices in Australia to 2030

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    What is the shape of the local offset market? As discussion increases over the role […]

    Research Insights, Webinar | November 13th, 2017
  • ALERT: ACCUs in the NEG – A carbon price by any other name?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    NEG to establish ‘de facto’ carbon price and abatement pathway for power sector Assuming the […]

    Analyst Alerts, Research Insights | October 18th, 2017
  • Download this free report

    To start your free download, simply fill in the below form. You will also receive our future updates, event invitations, and research insights by email.
    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone