RepuTex today released its initial forecasts for abatement supply and annual auction prices under Australia’s proposed baseline and penalty and reverse auction scheme. The setting of emissions baselines will be critical in shaping abatement supply under Direct Action, with the volume of supply dictating the price that the government will pay under its ERF. In this Market Update we forecast abatement supply based on a series of baselines and project corresponding abatement price trajectories. We also consider the Alberta SGER market and the potential application of intensity targets or descending baselines in the Australian market.
