ANALYST UPDATE: Australian GHG projections ‘overstated’

Analysis indicates that Australia’s official greenhouse gas emissions projections – used by the government in its submission to the United Nations ahead of December’s climate conference in Paris – are ‘systemically overstated’, with lower electricity demand and resource export growth forecast to result in 200 million tonnes of CO2e being cut from Australia’s official projections over the next five years.

This will bring Australia’s 2020 emissions reduction target within reach, albeit due to factors outside the government’s control. We continue to project that the Emissions Reduction Fund will contribute one-third of all abatement by 2020, or 120 Mt/CO2e.

Notably, analysis indicates that the international community may be right to question Australia’s emissions ambition, with write-downs likely to be brought-forward as an accounting benefit rather than translated into greater post-2020 target ambition – effectively inflating Australia’s starting point.

Chart: Business as usual emissions projections, Government versus RepuTex update

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Lower aggregate volumes and smaller parcel sizes see ACCU prices ease over the week

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | November 27th, 2023
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Activity in brokered and bilateral markets continue to diverge, HIR sellers remain patient

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | November 20th, 2023
  • Carbon Markets

    RECORDING: Australian carbon price, supply and demand outlook, October 2023

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex recently released its latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon compliance and […]

    Research Insights | November 14th, 2023
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Sporadic volumes for ACCUs as fresh integrity issues raised for REDD+ projects

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | November 13th, 2023
  • Carbon Markets

    MARKET WRAP: The State of the Australian Carbon Market – October Review 2023

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our State of the Australian Carbon Market report for October 2023 has now been published, […]

    Research Insights | November 8th, 2023
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • EnergyIQ platform

    Access the latest market data with our EnergyIQ platform
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications