On Thursday, the Climate Change Authority (CCA) released its 2024-25 Safeguard Preliminary Insights report, as well as its 2025 Annual Progress Report. Both documents contain preliminary data around the 2024-25 compliance year of the Safeguard Mechanism, including data on the number of covered facilities, covered emissions, aggregate baselines, potential SMC issuance, and baseline exceedances. Final and more comprehensive datasets will be released by the Clean Energy Regulator by 15 April 2026 and are expected to differ slightly from preliminary data. The Department for Climate Change, Energy, the Environment, and Water (DCCEEW) also released its annual emissions projections report, forecasting national emissions to 2040 across the economy – including forecasts for the Safeguard Mechanism scheme, such as covered emissions, baselines, SMCs, ACCU demand. This briefing reviews both reports and compare outcomes to our Central Case expectations, presented within our latest Carbon Market Outlook (October).
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