Direct Action vs. ETS: Achieving Our Emissions Objectives

RepuTex today released a research paper titled ‘Direct Action vs. Emissions Trading: Achieving Australia’s Emissions Reduction Objectives’. In this report, RepuTex analysed the ability of the Coalition’s Direct Action Plan and the government’s Emissions Trading policy to achieve Australia’s committed target to reduce emissions to 5-25% below 2000 levels by 2020. Research modelled the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of each policy at the industry level, examining abatement potential and the associated cost of each scenario through to 2020.

Key Findings:

  • The retention of the ETS would deliver the full 146 Mt CO2-e of abatement necessary to meet Australia’s 5 per cent emissions reduction target, with approximately 55 per cent coming from domestic abatement and 45 per cent from international abatement. This would be achieved at an average carbon price of A$22 from FY15-20.
  • Assuming the setting of ‘emissions intensity’ baselines and current funding, the Direct Action Plan is projected to lead to emissions growth of 16% on 2000 levels, driven by higher Power and Industrial sector emissions.
  • Additional funding of A$6 bn is required per year for the Emissions Reduction Fund to achieve enough abatement for Australia to meet its 5% emissions reduction target.
  • Alternatively, the setting of an ‘absolute emissions’ baseline could lead to significant domestic abatement and the meeting of Australia’s 5% emissions reduction target, however this would require a penalty price of $54 per tonne, and additional funding of A$3.3 bn per year.
  • Regardless of the policy mechanism, the Power and Industrial sectors – notably the Mining, Energy and Chemicals industries – will pay for the achievement of Australia’s abatement objectives, either passing that cost to customers (under the ETS) or to government (under Direct Action).
  • Under the latter, businesses will be required to outlay capital and other resources to deliver the abatement. It is then unclear if businesses will be guaranteed payment for abatement under the reverse auction mechanism.
  • To limit emissions growth or drive emissions reductions, a penalty price under Direct Action must be set at A$54 to encourage companies to directly invest in abatement activities.

Download the full report via the link below (automatic download).  

 

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Become a Carbon Insider today

Unlock our latest analysis, briefings and price information with our new Carbon Insider service.

Click below to see our plans.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    INSIGHTS: Election 2022 – Market impacts, and where to next for the ALP’s “Safeguard Mechanism 2.0”?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Federal Election has been run and won, with the Australian Labor Party (ALP) confident […]

    Research Insights | May 24th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Carbon Offset Market Report – ACCU spot and forward prices trade higher, premium units trade in volume

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Australian carbon offset market sprung back to life last week, with renewed demand from […]

    Research Insights | May 13th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Election scenarios – Possible outcomes and implications for ACCU prices

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    With just two weeks to run until the Australian federal election, the 47th Parliament is […]

    Research Insights | May 10th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Options market comes to life as buyers hedge against price increases

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The options and futures market for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) came to life late […]

    Research Insights | May 9th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Carbon Offset Market Report – Incentive for ERF exit weakens as ACCU market softens, issuance closes in on 110 million

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The local carbon market briefly awoke from its recent slumber over the last week, with […]

    Research Insights | May 5th, 2022
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • EnergyIQ platform

    Access the latest market data with our EnergyIQ platform
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications