No peak in sight? National emissions climb through 2020

The government’s latest emissions projections were released in late December, along with an update to the NGGI for FY 2014-15, providing more detailed insight into the downgrading of Australia's abatement task, and the government's long-term emissions outlook. In this Market Update, we go behind the numbers to identity the key trends and implications: The government’s latest emissions outlook has been downgraded to more accurately reflect flatter economic activity, as flagged in our March 2015 update. Findings indicate national emissions grew 1.3 per cent over FY15 - the first increase in fiscal year emissions since 2005-06, ten years ago, when Australian emissions reached their historic peak. Government figures indicate Australia will continue on a new upward emissions trajectory, with forecast growth of 6 per cent to 2020, despite current policy. This is in line with our estimates released in November, which calculated that national emissions would increase 6 per cent, growing to 4 per cent above 2000 levels by 2020 - short of Australia's minus 5 per cent target. The government has confirmed emissions will not be cut to minus 5 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020, meaning it will utilise its carry-over credit under the Kyoto Protocol to