Market Update: Australian emissions rise to 3 per cent above 2000 levels

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

In early May, the Department of Environment released Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA) for 2014, containing Australia’s national greenhouse gas emissions for 1990-2014, our official submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The Department also released Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI) though the December 2015 quarter, rounding out Australia’s preliminary 2015 emissions figures.

Notably, adjustments to Australia’s historical emissions indicate a reduction to Australia’s emissions in the year 2000, with the fall creating an updated reference point for Australia’s 5 per cent emissions reduction target by 2020. Updates to historical figures also indicate that Australian emissions fell to 4 per cent below the newly adjusted 2000 levels in 2014 – just one per cent above Australia’s 5 per cent target.

Since this point, however, Australian emissions have returned to a growth trajectory, driven by the land-use and electricity generation sectors, with the latest update to the NGGI (December quarter) confirming continued growth in emissions over the 2015 calendar year.

We continue to estimate that national emissions will remain on a growth trajectory to 2020, with emissions forecast to grow beyond 2020 to 2030 under current policy. While our current policy forecast shows ‘no peak in sight’, the extent of emissions increases through to 2030 will be highly sensitive to changing macroeconomic conditions, varying degrees of global action to reduce climate change, and domestic activity factors. Even so, our current policy expectations suggest further reform is required in order to achieve both an absolute 5 per cent target and Australia’s longer-term 2030 goal. 

Restricted Access

To continue reading this post, register below.

Continue reading this article

To continue reading this free article, simply click “register now” to access our free insights & events.

Access is free, and instant! Sign up below.

Register Now

Sign up to receive our research alerts

Create a free account to access our free insights and event invitations, and receive our research alerts via email. Access is complimentary, and instant. Sign up below:

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • WEBINAR: Where to for Australian carbon offset prices under current policy?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers changes to its climate policy framework, including new Safeguard Mechanism […]

    Research Insights | July 13th, 2020
  • CO2 offset price of $30-100/t for Australia to reach and maintain net-zero emissions

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers major changes to its climate policy framework, including crediting Safeguard […]

    Research Insights | June 23rd, 2020
  • OUTLOOK: Long-term carbon price, supply and demand outlook (Q4 FY19-20)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers major changes to its climate policy framework, including crediting Safeguard […]

    Research Insights | June 23rd, 2020
  • The King Review: Government steps toward a baseline and credit scheme

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The federal government today released the findings of its Expert Panel review (the King Review), […]

    Analyst Alerts, Research Insights | May 19th, 2020
  • UPDATE: Australia’s Expert Panel Climate Policy Review – What to Expect?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    2020 is shaping up as (another) key year for Australian climate policy, with the government’s […]

    Research Insights | May 13th, 2020
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone