In this briefing we consider the recent government statement that Australia’s abatement task has reduced from 750 to 440 Mt, analysing the likely methodologies being applied to achieve this new figure, along with pros and cons. While findings indicate that a lower abatement challenge is justified, analysis also suggests that the government’s end of year review will show national emissions trending back towards historic high levels through to 2020, with the market’s ability to achieve its abatement challenge without the CPM likely to be difficult.
- INTRODUCTION – AUSTRALIA’S ABATEMENT CHALLENGE
- THE 750 MT ABATEMENT FIGURE
- SCENARIO ONE: RE-WORKING FUTURE EMISSIONS TO ACHIEVE 440 Mt
- SCENARIO TWO: RE-WORKING HISTORICAL EMISSIONS TO ACHIEVE 440 Mt
- JUSTIFICATION FOR A LOWER EMISSIONS FORECAST
- COMPARISON AGAINST OTHER ABATEMENT TASK STUDIES
- EFFECTS OF POLICY ON AUSTRALIA’S EMISSIONS FORECAST