Carbon Markets Electricity

OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2021-40

Dear Subscriber,

Our latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for the National Electricity Market (NEM) has now been published.

The AEO is a quarterly outlook for price development in each region of the NEM over both medium-term (four years) and long-term horizons (20 years). The report contains:

  • an outlook for wholesale electricity prices for each region of the NEM (NSW, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC), over medium- (quarterly average prices for the next 16 quarters) and long-term horizons (annual average prices to 2040);
  • an outlook for annual average LGC prices to 2030 including the potential interaction with forward Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices;
  • forecasts for market outcomes, such as change in capacity and generation mix;
  • detailed discussion of important input assumptions; and
  • analysis of the major factors impacting the electricity market in the forecast period.

Modelling considers a Central Case for electricity price development in line with RepuTex’s view of the current transition of the energy industry and market drivers, along with an Alternative Case reflecting AEMO’s “Step Change” shift to renewable energy, accounting for faster technological improvements and more aggressive action on climate change in line with a “well below 2°C” Paris climate commitment (specifically to achieve net-zero emissions prior to 2050).

Sensitivities are also considered as a complement to each scenario, helping to identify the magnitude of impact of key assumptions and understand pricing paths.

This report is published under our Australian Electricity Market Intelligence and EnergyIQ services. Please login below to access the report and technical modelling, or click here to view this report in EnergyIQ.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Become a Carbon Insider today

Unlock our latest analysis, briefings and price information with our new Carbon Insider service.

Click below to see our plans.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: State and Trends in the Australian Carbon Offset Market – Q3 2022

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Traded volumes in the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market surged in the September quarter […]

    Research Insights | October 3rd, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Carbon Offset Market Report – Low volumes to close the quarter, HIR prices gain traction

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The final week of September brought Q3 to a close on relatively muted trading of […]

    Research Insights | October 3rd, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Carbon Offset Market Report – Generic ACCUs trade in record volumes as Safeguard firms enter the market

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the consultation period for Safeguard Mechanism reform comes to a close, both Generic (landfill […]

    Research Insights | September 26th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    REPORT: RepuTex full submission to the Safeguard Mechanism reform consultation paper

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex has today published its full submission (open link) to the Department of Climate Change, […]

    Research Insights | September 21st, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    ARTICLE: Safeguard Mechanism reform: A closer look at an ‘industry-average’ baseline scheme

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex has today released its submission to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment […]

    Research Insights | September 19th, 2022
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone