The Australian Government has committed to review the Safeguard Mechanism in 2026-27 to ensure that the scheme is appropriately calibrated and delivering emissions reductions in line with Australia’s emissions targets. This will include the setting of decline rates for the 2031-35 period, aligned to Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution.
Similar to the design of Safeguard Mechanism reforms over 2022-23, which was informed by RepuTex modelling, post-2030 policy settings will need to account for uncertainties that could affect future emissions, and the emissions budget, such as the timing and scale of new entrants (both new and expanding facilities), the potential for increased production by currently covered facilities, and possible changes to the reporting of coal mine methane emissions.
To understand these potential emissions risks, RepuTex was engaged by the Climate Council and Australian Conservation Foundation to forecast Safeguard Mechanism emissions from 2031-35 under a range of scenarios, along with preliminary baseline decline impacts.
Unlock our award-winning research insights
Request access to learn more about our research services, or click here to register for free access to our articles and price information.