Carbon Markets

UPDATE: Surge in activity around 2035 target lifts volatility, FY 26/27 Safeguard review comes into focus

Trading surged last week as the release of Australia’s 2035 emissions target drove spot volumes to a 6-month high. Despite a brief lift into a YTD high ahead of the target announcement, mixed sentiment saw volatility spike, before prices marked new month-to-date lows on Friday.

As we noted in our earlier analyst reaction, Australia’s 2035 target represents “moderate” climate ambition, but will require effort to achieve. Moreover, the steady uplift in ambition, and support from key industry groups, should make related policy enhancements to the Safeguard Mechanism more durable, ultimately helping to improve certainty for large-scale investment decisions. This will become clearer as we progress toward the 2026-27 Safeguard Mechanism policy review, with a number of key variables expected to shape future market development.

RepuTex’s Carbon Weekly report breaks down activity in the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets (spot and derivatives) over the past week, including key trends and drivers, our latest pricing and benchmarks, and our daily forward curves.

2035 emissions target announcement lifts spot activity and volatility, prices edge lower

Total traded volumesacross the Australian exchange-traded and over the counter (OTC) carbon markets rose to 1.2M last week (+456k WoW) on a 6-month high in weekly

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