Analysis of new figures released by the Department of Environment indicates a significant disconnect between the emissions reduction potential of government policy, presented on Tuesday, and Australia’s expected greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement task over 2015-2030.
Despite historical gains in lowering carbon intensity as a result of past climate change policy, we forecast that Australia’s emissions will increase dramatically over the outlook period under current policy, with projected annual emissions returning to levels above 600 Mt by 2018 in line with increased activity in the energy sector, particularly the expansion of LNG production and coal exports.
In line with our emissions forecast to 2030, we estimate this growth will create a significant abatement task over 2015-30 to meet the new pledge.
In seeking to meet the new target, figures released by the Department of Environment indicate that 900 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions reductions will be required to meet the new 2030 target. This is proposed to be achieved through yet to be released policy, including the Safeguard Mechanism, vehicle emissions standards, energy efficiency and technology improvements.
Analysis of these figures, however, indicates a significant shortfall between Department calculations, government Business As Usual (BAU) estimates and RepuTex estimates of Australia’s expected abatement task over 2015-2030.
This report is published under RepuTex’s Research Insights and Carbon Market Intelligence services, providing detailed analysis, outlooks and pricing information on the Emissions Reduction Fund, the new Safeguard compliance market, and interaction with Australia’s post-2020 emissions reduction target.
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