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Ahead of the second ERF auction, analysis indicates that a transition is underway within the ACCU market, with landfill gas and avoided deforestation projects making way for regeneration, savanna burning and grazing systems projects, while new projects from industry are slowly beginning to enter the market.
This changing supply dynamic will have a significant impact on bidding and price dynamics within ERF II, with CFI project developers to face new competition from larger industry market entrants, placing downward pressure on prices and displacing cost constrained projects.
Regardless of this dynamic, we continue to anticipate significant upside for firms in line with their appetite for risk, with high contract prices to again be available up to the “highest clearing price”, which will form in line with ACCU supply and bidding dynamics.
In this webinar, we take a closer look at the second ERF auction, including:
- Current registrations and ACCU supply expectations;
- The impact of industry registrations and large ACCU volumes entering the market;
- The formation of the Regulator’s 80 per cent clearing threshold, and the impact of ACCU supply and bid-prices on our projected ERF bid-stack
- The role of the Benchmark Price; and
- Our Emissions Reduction Fund Auction Simulation Tool