UPDATE: Uptick in volumes expected at sixth Emissions Reduction Fund auction

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

RepuTex today published its Outlook for the sixth ERF auction, to be held on December 6-7.

In line with auction five, we believe negative sentiment will again undermine the sixth ERF auction, with low participation likely to result in low volumes of abatement against initial auction events. We anticipate a small uptick in total auction volumes, albeit from a low base set in auction five, however negative sentiment is expected to again weigh down the market. Inversely, this is expected to flow through to higher contract prices, with modelling indicating a broad spread of contract prices is likely. Simulations suggest a high percentage of abatement may be contracted by the Regulator, extending the top of the auction bid stack, leading to a number of bidders contracting at prices well above the average price disclosed by the Regulator.

This suggests positive outcomes for participants, with conservative strategies at some risk of leaving notable upside on the table as the shape of the auction bid stack changes around the 50 per cent threshold.

To access our full ERF auction outlook and simulations, please CLICK HERE >>

To access our ACCU supply pipeline, click here, or to view our Project Pipeline, please click here.

Kind Regards,
The RepuTex Team
Australian Emissions Markets

LATEST UPDATES

  • Small ERF auction volumes to open window for high contract prices

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The seventh Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will take place next week (June 6-7), with […]

  • UPDATE: So what is the current and forecast Australian carbon price?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the design of the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) passes another milestone, and the seventh […]

  • UPDATE: Modelling the interaction between the NEG and State RETs

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    While initial modelling of the NEG has been undertaken for the Energy Security Board, to […]

  • Choose your own baseline – Industrial emissions and the Safeguard Mechanism

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    IN SHORT: High emitting industrial facilities covered by the ‘safeguard mechanism’ (excluding the generation sector) […]

    Carbon Market Update, Research Insights | February 16th, 2018
  • UPDATE: Outlook for ACCU supply and offset prices in Australia through to 2030

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As discussion increases over the role of domestic and international carbon credits in Australia, in […]

    Carbon Market Update, Research Insights | November 13th, 2017
  • Download this free report

    To start your free download, simply fill in the below form. You will also receive our future updates, event invitations, and research insights by email.
    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone