UPDATE: Uptick in volumes expected at sixth Emissions Reduction Fund auction

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

RepuTex today published its Outlook for the sixth ERF auction, to be held on December 6-7.

In line with auction five, we believe negative sentiment will again undermine the sixth ERF auction, with low participation likely to result in low volumes of abatement against initial auction events. We anticipate a small uptick in total auction volumes, albeit from a low base set in auction five, however negative sentiment is expected to again weigh down the market. Inversely, this is expected to flow through to higher contract prices, with modelling indicating a broad spread of contract prices is likely. Simulations suggest a high percentage of abatement may be contracted by the Regulator, extending the top of the auction bid stack, leading to a number of bidders contracting at prices well above the average price disclosed by the Regulator.

This suggests positive outcomes for participants, with conservative strategies at some risk of leaving notable upside on the table as the shape of the auction bid stack changes around the 50 per cent threshold.

To access our full ERF auction outlook and simulations, please CLICK HERE >>

To access our ACCU supply pipeline, click here, or to view our Project Pipeline, please click here.

Kind Regards,
The RepuTex Team
Australian Emissions Markets

LATEST UPDATES

  • WEBINAR: Wholesale electricity price forecast for the National Electricity Market

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In this event, we discuss the outcomes of our latest quarterly Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) […]

    Research Insights, Webinars | September 14th, 2020
  • Perfect storm drives down NEM wholesale electricity prices, but “the only way is up”?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In this update, we discuss our expectations for wholesale prices in the National Electricity Market […]

    Research Insights | August 25th, 2020
  • OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2020-40 (Q4 FY20)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Our latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for medium- and long-term price development in […]

    Outlook, Research Insights | August 21st, 2020
  • WEBINAR: Where to for Australian carbon offset prices under current policy?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers changes to its climate policy framework, including new Safeguard Mechanism […]

    Research Insights | July 13th, 2020
  • CO2 offset price of $30-100/t for Australia to reach and maintain net-zero emissions

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers major changes to its climate policy framework, including crediting Safeguard […]

    Research Insights | June 23rd, 2020
  • Download this free report

    To start your free download, simply fill in the below form. You will also receive our future updates, event invitations, and research insights by email.
    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone