ANALYST ALERT: Bidding set to begin at second ERF auction

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Bidding will open on Wednesday for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, which will run from November 4-5, operated by the Clean Energy Regulator.

Below, we outline our expectations for the second auction and implications for the supply of abatement towards Australia’s 2020 emissions reduction task.

Size matters?

As of 30th October 2015, applicants have registered 277 projects since the first ERF auction, with 87 projects registered in July alone as land-use proponents sought to mitigate the risk of a possible ‘early’ auction in line with the quarterly schedule initially proposed by the government.

Including the overhang of projects that failed to win contracts at the first ERF auction, 384 projects are currently registered in time for the second auction.

After avoided land clearing and landfill gas projects dominated the first auction, auction two will see a shift towards regeneration of forests, savannah burning, and industrial activities. 93 per cent of all projects are registered to land-use and waste proponents, while just 7 per cent are attributed to industry.

While industry accounts for only a small number projects registered, the size of those projects means that

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