OUR ELECTRICITY MARKET ANALYSIS
RepuTex electricity market analysis has been at the forefront of energy investment decisions for over two decades, providing government Ministers, regulators, large energy users, banks and investors with a trusted reference point for future price dynamics in the National Electricity Market (NEM).
As the local landscape for energy investment changes, our market analysis continues to provide decision makers with respected advice and answers to important investment, planning and policy questions, such as:
- How will electricity and LGC prices develop through to 2040 and beyond?
- What impact will Snowy 2.0 and coal retirements have on regional prices?
- How will wind and solar prices decline as renewable penetration increases?
- How will increasing penetration within Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) impact market value?
- How will changing market dynamics impact P90 price floors?
- What technologies will meet future supply shortfalls?
- What is the market opportunity for energy storage technology?
- How will emissions reduction targets impact market shape, and prices?
- How could LGC prices interact with Australian carbon credit prices?
Our services are underpinned by our proprietary simulation model, NEMRES, which replicates the operation of AEMO’s dispatch engine by simulating market behaviour and supply-demand conditions across each region of the NEM, accounting for the role of new supply and energy storage technologies, retirement, regional interconnections, and energy and climate policy factors.
AUSTRALIAN ELECTRICITY OUTLOOK (AEO)
RepuTex wholesale electricity and LGC price forecasts are packaged into our quarterly Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) service, covering medium-term (the next 16 quarters) and long-term (annual) wholesale electricity prices to 2040.
- outlook for wholesale electricity prices for each NEM region (NSW, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC), over medium- (16 quarters) and long-term horizons (to 2040);
- an outlook for LGC prices to 2040;
- forecasts for market outcomes, such as change in capacity and generation mix;
- detailed discussion of important input assumptions; and
- analysis of the major factors impacting the market in the forecast period.
The AEO publishes a Central Case for electricity price development in line with RepuTex’s view of the current transition of the energy industry, along with an Alternative Case, based on AEMO’s “Step Change” scenario, accounting for faster technological improvements and more aggresive action on climate change in line with a “well below 2°C” Paris climate commitment.
Sensitivities are also considered as a complement to the scenarios, helping to identify the magnitude of impact of key assumptions and understand pricing paths.
Our electricity advisory services provide bespoke analysis to suit the needs of our customers, such as custom price forecast horizons and time intervals (i.e. 30-min or 5-min settlement periods), time-weighted dispatch price modelling for wind and solar projects, or specific bidding strategies, load patterns, and weather conditions. We also undertake extensive modelling for regulators and policymakers, informing the optimal design of policy to meet specific market outcomes (such as emissions and renewable targets, capacity changes, reliability, etc).
Click below to learn more about our Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) and electricity advisory services.