Prior to the announcement of Australia’s new post-2020 emissions reduction target – and the release of updated rules for the government’s ERF Safeguard Mechanism – in this Update we analyse the ability of the government’s proposed safeguard policy to curb Australian emissions growth, and explore scenarios for the potential size of the associated compliance market.
After accounting for the coverage threshold at the facility level, we anticipate that the Safeguard Mechanism will cover approximately 80 companies, controlling 261 facilities with emissions over 100,000 t/CO2e.
80 per cent of covered facilities are expected to be from Queensland, Western Australia and New
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