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Carbon Markets Outlook

OUTLOOK: Carbon windfall gains …or losses? Long-term carbon price outlook

The price of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) has rebounded to a 5-month high of $16.37/t in October, a 10 per cent increase from a 12-month low of $14.80 in early July, on the back of small volumes traded in the spot market. Current prices remain below the 12-month high of $17.50/t, recorded prior to the federal election.

Despite recent price gains, the government’s proposal to allow large-emitting facilities covered by the Safeguard Mechanism to be credited for emissions reductions below their baselines may represent a risk to long-term carbon value. Under such a scenario, the potential influx low-quality, non-additional

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