Carbon Markets Electricity

OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2021-40

Dear Subscriber,

Our latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for the National Electricity Market (NEM) has now been published.

The AEO is a quarterly outlook for price development in each region of the NEM over both medium-term (four years) and long-term horizons (20 years). The report contains:

  • an outlook for wholesale electricity prices for each region of the NEM (NSW, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC), over medium- (quarterly average prices for the next 16 quarters) and long-term horizons (annual average prices to 2040);
  • an outlook for annual average LGC prices to 2030 including the potential interaction with forward Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices;
  • forecasts for market outcomes, such as change in capacity and generation mix;
  • detailed discussion of important input assumptions; and
  • analysis of the major factors impacting the electricity market in the forecast period.

Modelling considers a Central Case for electricity price development in line with RepuTex’s view of the current transition of the energy industry and market drivers, along with an Alternative Case reflecting AEMO’s “Step Change” shift to renewable energy, accounting for faster technological improvements and more aggressive action on climate change in line with a “well below 2°C” Paris climate commitment (specifically to achieve net-zero emissions prior to 2050).

Sensitivities are also considered as a complement to each scenario, helping to identify the magnitude of impact of key assumptions and understand pricing paths.

This report is published under our Australian Electricity Market Intelligence and EnergyIQ services. Please login below to access the report and technical modelling, or click here to view this report in EnergyIQ.

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