Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. This quarterly CMO presents our detailed modelling and expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices over a 10-year horizon to 2035, and underlying supply-demand fundamentals.
Specifically, modelling in this CMO considers the impact of the government’s new exposure draft landfill gas method, including a 12-year crediting extension for existing projects, with outcomes indicating that a significant increase in supply will defer our previously modelled tightening of the market.
This will materially flatten price uplift, with prices now forecast to remain under $100/t to 2035, while softening the potential impact of Australia’s 2035 emissions target.
The below “Technical Report” presents our full Central Case modelling, including deep dives into industrial decarbonisation and low-emissions technology uptake, compliance demand, and our forecasts for ACCU supply.
The accompanying “Summary Report” provides a short-form overview of key pricing and fundamental outcomes.
These reports are published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Access the reports below, or take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.
