MARKET UPDATE: An updated MAC curve for Australia to 2030

With the government’s Direct Action Plan now enacted, and Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target to be presented in the first half of the year, in this Market Update, we provide updated analysis of Australia’s low carbon pathway to 2020 and 2030, examining the remaining emissions reduction opportunities across the Australian economy, and the sectors and activities with the largest potential to drive Australia’s low carbon future.

The report is the first to look at Australia’s marginal cost of abatement in 2030 since research by McKinsey & Company in 2008, with RepuTex’s 2015 analysis updated to consider changes in gas and electricity prices, demand and policy.

Analysis indicates that Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction opportunities are rapidly decreasing, with policy uncertainty and delays in investment leaving the economy with fewer options to reduce emissions, and a higher cost to implementing greenhouse gas abatement projects.

You can view a summary of this report below:

This Market Briefing is a summary of RepuTex’s Market Update for January, titled “The Lost Years – An updated Marginal Abatement Cost curve for Australia to 2030”, published under our Carbon Market Intelligence service.

Please login to access our full Carbon Market Update (PDF) report.

Access Underlying MAC data

Our Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis is available to our Carbon Market Analytics subscribers, including breakdowns across all 88 activities to 2020 and 2030.To learn more, please register interest, CLICK HERE >>

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Surge in activity around 2035 target lifts volatility, FY 26/27 Safeguard review comes into focus

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Trading surged last week as the release of Australia’s 2035 emissions target drove spot volumes […]

    Research Insights | September 22nd, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Australian Government sets 2035 emissions target – Analyst reaction and market implications

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Prime Minister has today announced Australia’s 2035 emissions target and updated Nationally Determined Contribution […]

    Research Insights | September 18th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    ALERT: Impact of Woodside’s North West Shelf project extension approval on Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Approval of the North West Shelf project extension On Friday, an extension to operate until […]

    Research Insights | September 15th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: ACCU prices retrace from YTD highs as market readies for impending 2035 NDC announcement

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    After climbing to year-to-date highs early in the week, ACCU prices fell as spot liquidity […]

    Research Insights | September 15th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: 2035 target decision nears – Expectations, next steps, and implications for the Safeguard Mechanism

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Australia’s 2035 emissions target is imminent, with the Prime Minister expected to announce the new […]

    Research Insights | September 10th, 2025
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • EnergyIQ platform

    Access the latest market data with our EnergyIQ platform
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications