OUTLOOK: Medium-term forecast for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) supply 2024-33

Our latest Carbon Supply Outlook (CSO) for the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market has now been published.

This semi-annual CSO presents our expectations for medium-term ACCU supply by method over a rolling 10-year horizon, providing an in-depth view of supply side development and the assumptions deployed in our quarterly Carbon Market Outlook.

This report implements the following updates since our last CSO:

• Implementation of landfill gas baseline reforms and crediting period extensions, assumed to begin in FY26. Landfill gas baselines are set to 36%, increasing by 1.9% thereafter, reducing issuance particularly from large early projects. Modelled crediting period extensions see projects continue issuing into 2030s rather than mid-2020s.
• Updates to Plantation Forestry modelling at sub-method level based on schedule and rotation length, each with individual economics and deployment rates based on forestry revenue streams.
• Revised historical ACCU holdings by the Regulator, with a large increase in Safeguard and Safeguard-related holdings, slightly reducing expected buying demand in the short-term and reducing market signals for new supply.
• Updated gateway check failure rates for HIR projects to account for increased evidentiary requirements, adding an additional failure rate to years 5 and 15.
• Delayed launch of the IFLM