Carbon Markets Outlook

OUTLOOK: Long-term Australian carbon price, supply, and demand outlook (ACCUs and SMCs)

Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. This quarterly CMO presents our detailed modelling and expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices over a 10-year horizon, along with underlying supply-demand fundamentals.

The below “Technical Report” presents our full Central Case modelling, including deep dives into industrial decarbonisation and low-emissions technology uptake, compliance demand, and our forecasts for ACCU supply. The “Summary Report” provides a short-form overview of key pricing and fundamental outcomes.

These reports are published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Click below to access the report, or click here to take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.

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LATEST UPDATES

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    UPDATE: ACCUs briefly reach 5-month high on late momentum, trades for Plantation Forestry and SFM units

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    ACCU prices briefly rallied into the end of the week but were unable to sustain […]

    Research Insights | June 16th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Long-term options positioning signals maturing derivatives market; progress on new method development

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    Market activity steadied last week, with ACCU prices maintaining a narrow trading range as seasonal […]

    Research Insights | June 10th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    MARKET MONTHLY: ACCU prices grow to 4-month high, as market enters seasonal lull

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    Our State of the Australian Carbon Market report for May 2025 has now been published, […]

    Research Insights | June 5th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2025-44 – Q2 June 2025

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    Our latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for wholesale electricity and LGC prices in the National […]

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Seasonal lull keeps ACCU prices in holding pattern, Woodside NWS to define structural Safeguard demand into 2030s

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    Activity softened last week as the ACCU market continues to see seasonal stagnation, while secondary […]

    Research Insights | June 2nd, 2025
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