BRIEFING: Savanna Fire Management – New methods likely to see “significant issuance uplift”, material back-crediting risks

In 2024, new CSIRO research improved the estimation of abatement from Australia’s savanna regions by better attributing sequestration which is triggered by low-intensity burns, re-invigorating plants to promote growth. DCCEEW is currently developing new Savanna Fire Management (SFM) methods to apply these findings, including the new SavCAM tool, with the draft methods to undergo consultation in H2 2025.

RepuTex modelling indicates that the improved attribution of sequestration within the new SFM methods is likely to see a “significant uplift” in ACCU issuance, with potential for some projects to see a crediting uplift of between 120–715%, depending on local factors. In aggregate, the crediting uplift could be several times the magnitude of the landfill gas crediting extension, modelled in our latest Carbon Market Outlook.

Notably, the uplift in ACCU issuance could be further boosted should back-crediting occur, with issuance to existing SFM projects not reflecting the total abatement that has taken place when historical sequestration is considered.

Modelling indicates that back-crediting could trigger a significant flood of crediting, with very material market impacts depending on if, and when back-credited units are issued – subject to the additionality of these units, and other related permanence buffers.

While increased supply would provide policymakers