Carbon Markets

UPDATE: ACCU prices break to 5-month lows – What to make of FY24/25 Safeguard Mechanism preliminary compliance data?

Last week saw ACCU spot prices return to their broader downtrend observed throughout November, falling below $36/t for the first time since August on the release of preliminary Safeguard Mechanism compliance data for FY24/25, alongside DCCEEW’s annual release of Australia’s emissions forecast through to 2050.

Notably, the CCA’s preliminary data closely aligns with our modelling, to within 1% across most key metrics. Whilst RepuTex abatement modelling underpins DCCEEW’s national projections, direct comparison is limited due to key assumption differences, which we describe within this update.

RepuTex’s Carbon Weekly report breaks down activity in the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets (spot and derivatives) over the past week, including key trends and drivers, our latest pricing and benchmarks, and our daily forward curves.

ACCU prices continue November’s decline into 5-month lows on government data releases

Total traded volumes across the Australian exchange-traded and over the counter (OTC) carbon markets increased to 540k last week (+81k WoW) – yet remained below both the compliance year-to-date average (783k) and the weekly average over November 2024 (1.2M).

Spot market volumes of 400k (+91k WoW) were dominated by Generic No-Avoided Deforestation ACCUs (75%), followed by Generic ACCUs (19%) and HIR ACCUs (6%).

After a brief

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