Climate Scenarios >>

Climate-aligned carbon price scenarios are now mandatory for Australian companies reporting under the Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards (ASRS).

Companies must disclose climate-related financial risks across multiple scenarios – including pathways aligned to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C targets, as well as higher-warming outcomes.

RepuTex provides whole-of-economy carbon price trajectories from 2025 to 2050 across four climate-linked scenarios, aligned with global climate references (IPCC, IEA) and designed specifically for ASRS compliance.

• 1.5°C Climate Scenario – Aggressive decarbonization aligned to limiting warming to 1.5°C
• 2°C Climate Scenario – Paris Agreement target pathway
• Current Policy Scenario – Projection based on existing policies and commitments
• 3°C Hot House Scenario – Limited climate action leading to ~3°C warming

Our scenarios are aligned with global climate references (IPCC, IEA) and include detailed methodology statements and disclosure licenses to support ASRS compliance.

Did you know: RepuTex carbon price scenarios are used by Australia’s largest emitters, banks, and institutional investors to model climate risk, assess stranded asset exposure, and stress-test net-zero transition pathways under mandatory ASRS reporting requirements.

Climate scenarios require more than just carbon prices – companies must also consider sector-specific decarbonisation pathways and shadow carbon values that reflect technology and policy evolution over time.

Our sector pathways depict how industry emission reductions evolve under different climate scenarios, while our shadow carbon values provide sector-specific carbon pricing benchmarks for investment and risk assessment.

What we provide:

• Sector decarbonisation pathways – Emissions reduction trajectories from 2025 to 2050 for all sectors of the economy, including Mining, Metals, Oil & Gas, Transport, Manufacturing, Electricity, Land, and Buildings sectors under each climate scenario
• Technology uptake forecasts – Detailed modelling of technology adoption (electrification, hydrogen, CCS, renewables, etc.) by sector and scenario to show how decarbonization occurs
• Sector carbon values (shadow prices) – Sector-specific carbon values that reflect marginal abatement costs, technology readiness, and policy constraints – providing more granular inputs than economy-wide prices
• Target Consistent Carbon Values (TCCVs) – Carbon price benchmarks aligned to Australia’s national emissions targets (2030, 2035, 2050) for use in economic modelling and project appraisal
• Scenario comparison tools – Interactive platform to compare outcomes and carbon values across scenarios, by sector, and time horizon

RepuTex climate scenarios are designed specifically for Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards (ASRS) compliance, with detailed methodology documentation and disclosure licenses for external use.

Unlike generic global scenarios, our pathways are calibrated to Australia’s emissions profile, policy settings, and decarbonisation potential – making them directly relevant for Australian companies reporting under ASRS.

What we provide for ASRS compliance:

• ASRS-aligned scenario definitions – Our scenarios meet the ASRS requirement for at least one Paris-aligned pathway (2°C or below) and one higher-warming scenario (above 2°C)
• Detailed methodology statement – Full documentation of scenario assumptions, modelling approach, data sources, and alignment with global climate references (IPCC AR6, IEA Net Zero)
• Disclosure license – Explicit license allowing clients to reference and disclose RepuTex scenarios in public ASRS reports, investor presentations, and regulatory filings
• Scenario narrative descriptions – Scenario descriptions and assumptions suitable for inclusion in ASRS disclosures and climate risk reports

Climate scenarios are not just a compliance exercise – they are essential for strategic planning, capital allocation, and risk management in a decarbonising economy.

RepuTex climate scenarios support a range of use cases beyond ASRS reporting:

• Climate risk disclosure – Meet mandatory ASRS scenario analysis requirements by modelling financial impacts of carbon pricing under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C pathways
• Stranded asset assessment – Evaluate the financial viability of long-lived assets (coal plants, gas infrastructure, carbon-intensive operations) under Paris-aligned carbon prices
• Net-zero transition planning – Set internal carbon prices and decarbonization targets aligned to 1.5°C or 2°C pathways to guide investment decisions
• Investment appraisal – Use Target Consistent Carbon Values (TCCVs) to incorporate climate risk into project NPV calculations and capital allocation decisions
• Stress testing – Model business resilience under different carbon price futures to identify vulnerabilities and strategic opportunities
• Board reporting – Provide directors with transparent, defensible climate scenarios for governance oversight and strategic decision-making

Did you know: Australia’s major financial institutions use RepuTex climate scenarios to assess transition risk in their portfolios, modelling how carbon prices could impact carbon-intensive companies and infrastructure projects.

Direct access to our research team is included with our services, giving you a clear line of sight into our modelling, recent market activity, price formation, and key policy developments. Use the ‘Ask an Analyst’ chat in the EnergyIQ platform, or contact us for a briefing.

No counter. No limit. Direct access when you need it.

Data & analytics firm of the year – 2024 and 2025 (Energy Risk Asia)

RepuTex is proud to have been recognised as the “Data & analytics firm of the year” at the Energy Risk Asia Awards – winning the award for two consecutive years over 2024 and 2025.

The Energy Risk Asia Awards acknowledge excellence in firms that have contributed positively to energy risk management in the Asian commodities markets. Specifically, the award recognised RepuTex as the leading provider of data and intelligence resources for the Australian carbon and electricity markets.

RepuTex named “default price” market data provider by Australian Government 

In 2024–25, RepuTex was named the “Default Prescribed Unit Price” (DPUP) market data provider by the Australian Government, with our transaction data used to set the standard price for prescribed carbon units under the Safeguard Mechanism compliance scheme.

AustCham Westpac Australia-China Business Awards

RepuTex was recognised as the winner of the AustCham China Light and Power Australia China Business Award for energy and climate research across Asia-Pacific.

Accreditation under IOSCO PRA Principles

In 2023-24 RepuTex became the first price reporting agency to meet compliance under the International Organization of Securities Commission’s Principles for Price Reporting Agencies for an Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) price benchmark.