Climate Scenarios >>

Climate scenario analysis is now a core requirement for Australian companies reporting under the Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards (ASRS) and AASB S2.

Reporting entities must assess climate-related risks and opportunities under multiple climate scenarios, including at least one scenario aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C and another that reflects higher global warming.

Yet for Australian businesses, a key data gap remains. Global climate scenarios from organisations such as the IEA and IPCC provide detailed emissions, energy and technology pathways, but provide little guidance on how these translate into Australian carbon prices, carbon costs and domestic policy risk.

RepuTex Australian Climate Scenarios address this gap, providing Australian carbon price pathways to 2050 across a range of global climate outcomes:

• 1.5°C Climate Scenario – An immediate and orderly transition aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
• Delayed 1.5°C Climate Scenario – A delayed transition to the same 1.5°C outcome, requiring a more rapid adjustment as the available emissions budget tightens.
• Current Policy Scenario – RepuTex’s Central Case outlook based on current Australian climate policy settings.
• 3°C Climate Scenario – A higher-warming pathway characterised by weaker climate ambition, higher fossil fuel demand and delayed decarbonisation.

Scenario outcomes are published in our Australian Climate Scenarios Outlook, providing detailed analysis of carbon price development, policy settings, and key drivers across each climate pathway.

Scenarios are developed under RepuTex’s Australian Climate Scenarios Methodology, drawing on recognised IEA and IPCC climate pathways and Australian emissions pathways from CSIRO and the Climate Change Authority.

RepuTex Climate Scenarios model carbon prices within Australia’s climate policy architecture based on the least-cost mix of greenhouse gas abatement opportunities available to meet each climate-aligned emissions budget.

Rather than simply converting global carbon values into Australian dollars, our modelling determines how different climate pathways could flow through to Australian climate policy settings and carbon prices, enabling analysis of local carbon costs along with local policy risk.

This provides an Australian reference for analysing:

• Carbon cost exposure – Australian carbon price pathways to 2050 under different climate outcomes.
• Policy transition risk – How different levels and timing of climate ambition could affect Australian carbon policy and compliance costs.
• Industrial decarbonisation – The technologies and abatement costs underpinning carbon price development.
• Scenario comparison – Compare carbon prices and key assumptions across 1.5°C, delayed 1.5°C, current-policy and 3°C pathways.
• Long-term planning – Apply climate-aligned Australian carbon prices to financial modelling, asset valuation and transition planning.

RepuTex Australian Climate Scenarios translate recognised global climate pathways into Australian emissions budgets and carbon price scenarios through to 2050.

Under our six-step Australian Climate Scenarios Methodology, global carbon budgets are established using recognised IEA and IPCC climate pathways, then downscaled to Australia with reference to CSIRO and Climate Change Authority pathways.

Resulting climate-aligned emissions budgets are translated into Safeguard Mechanism emissions constraints, with Australian carbon prices modelled based on the least-cost uptake of greenhouse gas abatement opportunities, drawing on RepuTex Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves.

The result is a series of Australian carbon price scenarios grounded in Australia’s policy framework and local abatement landscape – rather than a macro global price pathway.

RepuTex Climate Scenarios are designed to support climate scenario analysis and transition risk assessment under ASRS and AASB S2.

Subscribers receive detailed methodology and disclosure materials to support the transparent use of RepuTex scenarios in external reporting. Subscribers also receive a RepuTex Reference Statement for use in external reporting, confirming the scenarios and methodology applied for the relevant reporting period, together with a licence to reference specified scenario outputs.

What we provide:

• Australian Climate Scenarios Outlook – Detailed analysis of Australian carbon price outcomes, emissions, policy settings and key drivers across each climate pathway.
• ASRS-aligned scenarios – Climate scenarios spanning 1.5°C and higher-warming outcomes for use in climate scenario analysis.
• Disclosure licence – Licence to reference specified RepuTex scenario outputs in external disclosures.
• RepuTex Reference Statement – A formal external reference confirming the RepuTex scenarios and methodology applied for the relevant reporting period.
• Scenario narratives and assumptions – Supporting information for use in climate risk analysis, governance and disclosure.
• Annual reporting support – Updated scenario outputs and Reference Statements aligned with the applicable reporting period.

Direct access to our research team is included with our services, giving you a clear line of sight into our modelling, scenario assumptions, carbon price outcomes and key policy developments. Use the ‘Ask an Analyst’ chat in the EnergyIQ platform, or contact us for a briefing.

Data & analytics firm of the year – 2024 and 2025 (Energy Risk Asia)

RepuTex is proud to have been recognised as the “Data & analytics firm of the year” at the Energy Risk Asia Awards – winning the award for two consecutive years over 2024 and 2025.

The Energy Risk Asia Awards acknowledge excellence in firms that have contributed positively to energy risk management in the Asian commodities markets. Specifically, the award recognised RepuTex as the leading provider of data and intelligence resources for the Australian carbon and electricity markets.

RepuTex named “default price” market data provider by Australian Government 

In 2024–25, RepuTex was named the “Default Prescribed Unit Price” (DPUP) market data provider by the Australian Government, with our transaction data used to set the standard price for prescribed carbon units under the Safeguard Mechanism compliance scheme.

AustCham Westpac Australia-China Business Awards

RepuTex was recognised as the winner of the AustCham China Light and Power Australia China Business Award for energy and climate research across Asia-Pacific.

Accreditation under IOSCO PRA Principles

In 2023-24 RepuTex became the first price reporting agency to meet compliance under the International Organization of Securities Commission’s Principles for Price Reporting Agencies for an Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) price benchmark.