Australian carbon spot prices have continued to surge, reaching a new record high of $26/t on Thursday, a 6% gain on the week. RepuTex’s ACCU spot price assessment has now grown 57% year-to-date, with recent activity driven by larger compliance buyers continuing to accumulate ACCUs to surrender against their multi-year baselines. Increased compliance demand ahead of the Feb-22 deadline to surrender ACCUs under the safeguard mechanism, amid a tight supply setting, continues to create a bullish environment for spot prices and forward contracting.
In particular, forward activity for delivery in Feb-22 (CAL 21) and Feb-23 (CAL 22) has picked up over the past fortnight, with 4 transactions recorded this week (75,000), following on from 7 in total last week (125,000). Deliveries for Feb-22 continue to trade higher, reaching $26.45/t, while deliveries for Feb-23 have now climbed to $27/t. For a full list of forward transactions, refer to our “Forward trades” tab on this page.
Higher forward prices have now been fed into our Central Case forecast for CY21-23, with potential for prices to continue to climb fed by emissions reductions demand outpacing available supply over the near term.
As noted in our earlier updates, the conclusion of some multi-year
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