UPDATE: Carbon price may double to $35/t in 2030 for industry sector

With the electricity sector locked into the National Energy Guarantee (NEG), other sectors of the economy will be called on to contribute to Australia’s 2030 target, with high emitting energy, materials and industrial facilities bracing for larger emissions cuts to reach Australia’s 2030 goal.

Unlike the electricity sector, large industrial facilities are subject to high abatement costs, and will subsequently rely heavily on external abatement sources to ‘fill the gap’ to 2030. As this occurs, we expect carbon contract prices to increase considerably from 2020, with greater demand for offsets, and the need for more expensive abatement, resulting in prices growing to $35/t in 2030.

In line with this price curve, we expect the value of the Australian carbon offset market to grow to more than $2 billion in the year 2030, or around $10 billion through to 2030, underpinned by large energy, materials and industrial facilities.

In this update, we present our outlook for carbon offset demand and prices to 2030, accounting for future target scenarios, and the balancing of internal and external abatement costs for industry.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Not a subscriber?

To learn more about our research services for the Australian energy and emissions markets, click the button below, or email our subscriptions team.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • The marginal cost of net-zero emissions under the Paris Agreement

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Australia has ratified the Paris Agreement, which aims to ‘strengthen the global response to the […]

  • Where to for wholesale electricity prices under ‘current policy’?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The 2019 federal election has been run and won, with the energy policy status quo […]

    Analyst Alerts, Research Insights | May 29th, 2019
  • INSIGHTS: So what is the current Australian carbon spot price?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal election draws closer, considerable attention is being paid to the ALP’s proposed […]

    Blog archive, Research Insights | May 10th, 2019
  • ALERT: Access our new RepuTex CONNECT customer platform

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, RepuTex recently released an update to its CONNECT platform, providing customers with daily […]

    Research Insights | April 16th, 2019
  • UPDATE: Running to stand still – Industry baselines under the Safeguard Mechanism

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    A critical component of both the ALP and Coalition climate policy frameworks is the ‘Safeguard […]

  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone