- In the absence of a Clean Energy Target, the extension of Liddell and the expansion of the Snowy Hydro scheme represent the two core pillars of the government’s energy policy framework. In this update, we examine the impact of these measures on the market, namely the impact on wholesale electricity prices, and the interaction with continuing elevated gas prices.
- Should no new energy policy be implemented, elevated electricity prices are largely projected to continue, partially mitigated by 13 GW of rooftop solar and 5 GW of newly available large-scale generation incentivised by federal and state renewable energy targets.
- Direction to keep Liddell open and be refurbished ($900 million in capital investments) may throw a wrench into the 4,000 MW of advanced renewable projects that have not yet reached financial close, potentially resulting in a decrease of about 6,000,000 MWh of low-cost renewable energy from our BAU case.
- In such a scenario, modelling indicates that reduced competition from renewable sources would result in the NSW fuel mix becoming increasingly dependent on expensive gas, with annual average wholesale electricity prices growing above $100/MWh, despite the addition of more than 2,000 MW in short term renewables supply over the next
Unlock our award-winning research insights
Request access to learn more about our research services, or click here to register for free access to our articles and price information.