INSIGHTS: Facility exits could mean steeper Safeguard decline rates – by how much? (Transcript)

RepuTex modelling indicates 52 facilities – around 25% of those currently covered – could exit the Safeguard Mechanism through to 2035 as emissions fall below the scheme’s 100,000 tCO₂-e coverage threshold or facilities reach end of life. Together, these facilities represent around 14 Mt of emissions, equivalent to the thermal coal and alumina sectors leaving the scheme.

While these emissions fall out of policy coverage, they do not leave Australia’s national emissions inventory. If the Safeguard Mechanism is to maintain its proportional contribution to Australia’s national emissions reduction target, declining coverage therefore places greater pressure on remaining facilities to make