No peak in sight? National emissions climb through 2020

The government’s latest emissions projections were released in late December, along with an update to the NGGI for FY 2014-15, providing more detailed insight into the downgrading of Australia’s abatement task, and the government’s long-term emissions outlook.

In this Market Update, we go behind the numbers to identity the key trends and implications:

• The government’s latest emissions outlook has been downgraded to more accurately reflect flatter economic activity, as flagged in our March 2015 update.
• Findings indicate national emissions grew 1.3 per cent over FY15 – the first increase in fiscal year emissions since 2005-06, ten years ago, when Australian emissions reached their historic peak.
• Government figures indicate Australia will continue on a new upward emissions trajectory, with forecast growth of 6 per cent to 2020, despite current policy.
• This is in line with our estimates released in November, which calculated that national emissions would increase 6 per cent, growing to 4 per cent above 2000 levels by 2020 – short of Australia’s minus 5 per cent target.
• The government has confirmed emissions will not be cut to minus 5 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020, meaning it will utilise its carry-over credit under