MARKET UPDATE: Renewable Generation Powering Down?

Australian large-scale renewable generation is likely to be 40 per cent lower in 2020 on the repeal of the carbon tax and revisions to the Renewable Energy Target, while the resulting market conditions are likely to bring relief for black coal generation.

In this Market Update, we analyse the impact of repealing the Carbon Price Mechanism (CPM) and the introduction of a reduced Renewable Energy Target (RET) of 20 per cent by 2020 (down from a fixed target of 41,000 GWh by 2020) on the National Electricity Market (NEM), with findings indicating that an ill wind is blowing for renewable generation.

Despite likely gains for fossil fuel generators, analysis indicates that relief may only be temporary, with large-scale renewables likely to continue to experience cost reductions, while the government’s new ‘baseline and credit’ mechanism, the Direct Action Plan, may further dampen the electricity demand outlook for coal generation and place ongoing pressure on profit margins.

Here we preview our Carbon Market Update for April:

 

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    RECORDING: ACCU prices to remain under $100/t to 2035, landfill gas extension to materially flatten uplift

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In May, DCCEEW published a new draft landfill gas method outlining updated rules for crediting […]

    Research Insights, Webinars | July 1st, 2025
  • Carbon Markets Outlook

    OUTLOOK: Australian carbon price, supply & demand outlook (ACCUs/SMCs) June 2025

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. […]

    Market Outlooks, Research Insights | June 30th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: ACCU prices remain tightly rangebound, Default Prescribed Unit Price set for FY25 compliance costs

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    ACCU spot prices remained tightly rangebound last week, with our Generic ACCU (Market Close) assessment […]

    Research Insights | June 30th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    NOTICE: RepuTex ACCU price benchmark recognised as “Default Prescribed Unit Price” by Australian Government

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex’s ACCU price benchmark has been recognised as the “Default Prescribed Unit Price” (DPUP) by […]

    Notices, Research Insights | June 27th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: OTC forward market activity rebounds to 8-month high, update on IFLM method development

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Market activity remained stable last week, with ACCU spot prices continuing to trade within a […]

    Research Insights | June 23rd, 2025
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • EnergyIQ platform

    Access the latest market data with our EnergyIQ platform
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications