This inaugural Climate Scenarios Outlook presents RepuTex’s Australian carbon price scenarios to 2050 under a series of 1.5°C and 3°C-aligned global climate pathways, providing a long-term assessment of how Australia’s carbon market could develop under different global temperature outcomes.
Modelling supports scenario analysis, transition risk assessment and climate disclosures under the Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards (ASRS) and AASB S2.
Specifically, modelling considers three scenarios:
- Global Action 1.5°C – Earlier strengthening of Australian climate policy, with emissions constraints immediately tightening.
- Delayed 1.5°C – Current policy trajectory to 2030, followed by faster tightening to remain within the emissions budget.
- Hot House 3°C – Policy constraints are relaxed under a larger budget, with higher fossil fuel activity and delayed decarbonisation.
Scenarios are calibrated to climate pathways published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA), translating global carbon budgets into an Australian context through a six-step downscaling process, with reference to Climate Change Authority and CSIRO pathways and modelling underpinning Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
RepuTex then models long-term Australian carbon price formation to 2050, reflecting the least-cost uptake of greenhouse gas abatement required to meet the emissions constraints under each pathway.
This report presents headline carbon price outcomes across each climate pathway, together with a detailed overview of the underlying methodology, including a Reference Statement for use in external reporting. View our full Climate Scenarios Outlook below.
Accessing RepuTex’s Australian Climate Scenarios
The RepuTex Australian Climate Scenarios Outlook forms part of our Climate Scenarios service, which provides detailed climate scenarios to support transition risk analysis and reporting under the ASRS and AASB S2, alongside supporting methodology information and disclosure materials.
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