Carbon Markets Outlook

OUTLOOK: Long-term carbon price, supply and demand outlook (Q3 FY19-20)

The Safeguard Mechanism covers greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s largest emitting facilities, extending to 450 facilities (around 260 businesses) in the Electricity, Mining, Oil and Gas, Manufacturing, Transport, and Waste sectors. Collectively, these companies accounted for 60% of Australia’s emissions in 2019.

While electricity emissions have fallen from 2005-19, industry emissions (excluding electricity) have risen to 60% cent above 2005 levels behind increases in the Oil & Gas (621% increase), Road Transport (122%), Aviation (54%) and Mining (41%) sectors.

Under this trajectory, the industrial sector is projected to surpass electricity as Australia’s largest emitting segment in 2023-24, growing to 110% above 2005 levels by 2030, with large facilities free to increase their emissions baselines under the government’s Safeguard Mechanism scheme – with no requirement to reduce or offset emissions growth.

In this Carbon Quarterly, we review covered emissions under the Safeguard Mechanism framework, and provide updated analysis of activity in the carbon spot market, including our long term carbon price, supply and demand forecasts to 2030, and alternative 1.5-2 degree price pathways under the Paris Agreement.

About Carbon Quarterly

RepuTex Carbon Quarterly provides detailed analysis of developments impacting the Australian carbon market, focusing on the impact of policy, economic and market-related factors on the current value of carbon units, and our long term price, supply and demand forecasts through to 2030. For more information, please click here.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Become a Carbon Insider today

Unlock our latest analysis, briefings and price information with our new Carbon Insider service.

Click below to see our plans.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    By the numbers – A closer look at 2021 in the Australian carbon market

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    2021 was a year of records in the Australian carbon market, with prices, volumes and […]

    Research Insights | January 18th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    MARKET UPDATE: Australian Carbon Offset Market Report: Dec – Jan 2022

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Our latest Australian Carbon Offset Market Update has now been published. The Australian […]

    Research Insights | January 11th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    Merry Christmas and holiday support / office hours

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, We hope that the festive season has been treating you well, and we […]

    Research Insights | December 22nd, 2021
  • Carbon Markets

    MARKET UPDATE: Australian Carbon Offset Market Report: Dec 6 – Dec 17, 2021

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Our latest Australian Carbon Offset Market Update has now been published. The price […]

    Research Insights | December 22nd, 2021
  • Carbon Markets Outlook

    OUTLOOK: Long-term Australian carbon price, supply and demand outlook

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Australian carbon market has experienced a major bull run over the course of calendar […]

    Research Insights | December 20th, 2021
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone