OUTLOOK: Long-term carbon price, supply and demand outlook (Q3 FY19-20)

The Safeguard Mechanism covers greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s largest emitting facilities, extending to 450 facilities (around 260 businesses) in the Electricity, Mining, Oil and Gas, Manufacturing, Transport, and Waste sectors. Collectively, these companies accounted for 60% of Australia’s emissions in 2019.

While electricity emissions have fallen from 2005-19, industry emissions (excluding electricity) have risen to 60% cent above 2005 levels behind increases in the Oil & Gas (621% increase), Road Transport (122%), Aviation (54%) and Mining (41%) sectors.

Under this trajectory, the industrial sector is projected to surpass electricity as Australia’s largest emitting segment in 2023-24, growing to 110% above 2005 levels by 2030, with large facilities free to increase their emissions baselines under the government’s Safeguard Mechanism scheme – with no requirement to reduce or offset emissions growth.

In this Carbon Quarterly, we review covered emissions under the Safeguard Mechanism framework, and provide updated analysis of activity in the carbon spot market, including our long term carbon price, supply and demand forecasts to 2030, and alternative 1.5-2 degree price pathways under the Paris Agreement.

About Carbon Quarterly

RepuTex Carbon Quarterly provides detailed analysis of developments impacting the Australian carbon market, focusing on the impact of policy, economic and market-related factors on the current value of carbon units, and our long term price, supply and demand forecasts through to 2030. For more information, please click here.

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