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Carbon Markets Outlook

OUTLOOK: Long-term carbon price, supply and demand outlook (Q3 FY19-20)

The Safeguard Mechanism covers greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s largest emitting facilities, extending to 450 facilities (around 260 businesses) in the Electricity, Mining, Oil and Gas, Manufacturing, Transport, and Waste sectors. Collectively, these companies accounted for 60% of Australia’s emissions in 2019.

While electricity emissions have fallen from 2005-19, industry emissions (excluding electricity) have risen to 60% cent above 2005 levels behind increases in the Oil & Gas (621% increase), Road Transport (122%), Aviation (54%) and Mining (41%) sectors.

Under this trajectory, the industrial sector is projected to surpass electricity as Australia’s largest emitting segment in 2023-24, growing to 110%

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