OUTLOOK: Long-term carbon price, supply and demand outlook (Q3 FY19-20)

The Safeguard Mechanism covers greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s largest emitting facilities, extending to 450 facilities (around 260 businesses) in the Electricity, Mining, Oil and Gas, Manufacturing, Transport, and Waste sectors. Collectively, these companies accounted for 60% of Australia’s emissions in 2019.

While electricity emissions have fallen from 2005-19, industry emissions (excluding electricity) have risen to 60% cent above 2005 levels behind increases in the Oil & Gas (621% increase), Road Transport (122%), Aviation (54%) and Mining (41%) sectors.

Under this trajectory, the industrial sector is projected to surpass electricity as Australia’s largest emitting segment in 2023-24, growing to 110% above 2005 levels by 2030, with large facilities free to increase their emissions baselines under the government’s Safeguard Mechanism scheme – with no requirement to reduce or offset emissions growth.

In this Carbon Quarterly, we review covered emissions under the Safeguard Mechanism framework, and provide updated analysis of activity in the carbon spot market, including our long term carbon price, supply and demand forecasts to 2030, and alternative 1.5-2 degree price pathways under the Paris Agreement.

About Carbon Quarterly

RepuTex Carbon Quarterly provides detailed analysis of developments impacting the Australian carbon market, focusing on the impact of policy, economic and market-related factors on the current value of carbon units, and our long term price, supply and demand forecasts through to 2030. For more information, please click here.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Not a subscriber?

To learn more about our research services for the Australian energy and emissions markets, click the button below, or email our subscriptions team.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • UPDATE: Short- and long-term ACCU spot price impacts of COVID-19

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    International carbon prices have tumbled amid fears that a COVID-19 induced economic downturn will curb […]

    Analyst Alerts, Research Insights | March 26th, 2020
  • ALERT: COVID-19 service continuity and client support information

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, As the COVID-19 situation evolves, we will continue to provide our regular research […]

    Research Insights, Service Alerts | March 24th, 2020
  • ALERT: Inclusion of AEMO “Step Change” scenario in Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) service

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Following the release of AEMO’s draft 2020 Integrated System Plan, the Alternative Case […]

    Research Insights, Service Alerts | March 13th, 2020
  • WEBINAR: The Australian Carbon Price and Net-Zero Emissions – Where to next?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As pressure builds for Australia to develop a more ambitious long-term emissions target ahead of […]

    Research Insights, Webinars | February 25th, 2020
  • OUTLOOK: Long-term carbon price, supply and demand outlook (Q3 FY19-20)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Safeguard Mechanism covers greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s largest emitting facilities, extending to 450 […]

    Outlook, Research Insights | February 11th, 2020
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone