Carbon Markets Outlook

OUTLOOK: Long-term Australian carbon price, supply, and demand outlook (ACCUs and SMCs)

Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon compliance and voluntary markets has now been published.

This quarterly CMO presents our expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices, along with underlying supply-demand fundamentals over a 10-year horizon.

Analysis presents our Central Case forecast, or in-house view of market development. This is complemented by scenario analysis which considers alternative pathways for market development, along with key economic, market, and policy sensitivities.

Specifically, High/Low scenarios evaluate the pace and scale of decarbonisation by Safeguard Mechanism facilities – the material driver of carbon credit demand and price development, along with sensitivities for forecast supply.

Part one of this CMO summarises our key outcomes. Part two discusses our methodology and modelling approach. Part three presents our medium-term outlook for the Australian market, including compliance demand, other sources of demand, supply, market balance, and forecast market prices (10-yr). Part four discusses alternative scenarios and risks to presented outcomes. An appendix lists more detail about our modelling assumptions and key inputs.

Note: this CMO integrates the outcomes of our latest Carbon Supply Outlook (CSO, February 2024), which provides an in-depth view of our supply assumptions and forecast outcomes. Click here to access our full CSO.

This CMO is published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Click below to access the report, or click here to take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Prices stabilise after downturn, is Generic / HIR convergence here to stay?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | April 8th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    Consultation – Notice of proposal to adjust RepuTex ACCU price assessment

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex is proposing to adjust its price assessment for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), moving […]

    Research Insights | April 2nd, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    ALERT: Rollercoaster ride as market responds to continued scrutiny of Regeneration integrity

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | March 28th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    Notice of update to ACCU price assessment methodology

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex has published an update to its Pricing and Methodology Statement for ACCUs. To better […]

    Research Insights | March 26th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Method delays highlight risk of gap in actively used ACCU vegetation methods

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | March 25th, 2024
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone