Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. This quarterly report presents our medium-term expectations for ACCU and SMC prices, along with underlying supply-demand fundamentals, over a 10-year horizon.
Analysis presents our Central Case forecast, or “in-house view” of market development, alongside alternative market pathways. Specifically, our core “Accelerated Decarbonisation” and “Slow Decarbonisation” scenarios evaluate the alternative pace and scale of onsite action by Safeguard Mechanism facilities – the material driver of medium-term carbon credit demand and price development.
Our “Stretch Target” scenario projects market growth consistent with Australia’s more ambitious 2035 NDC of 70%, requiring an increase in post-2030 baseline decline rates. Within this CMO, we also introduce a new “high fossil fuel production” sensitivity, examining the effects of increased domestic and international coal and gas demand.
Underlying outcomes are now accessible via our new Medium Term Forecast Explorer >>
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