OUTLOOK: Medium-term Carbon Market Outlook – Summary Report, Mar 2026

Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published.

This quarterly Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) presents our medium-term expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices, along with underlying supply-demand fundamentals over a 10-year horizon.

Analysis in this document (Summary Report) presents a short-form overview of our key Central Case outcomes. A full Technical Report is published separately, providing all modelling behind our Central Case forecast, or “in-house view” of market development.

Our Central Case modelling is complemented by a supplementary “Scenario Analysis” report, which presents alternative pathways for market development, along with other variable market and policy sensitivities, changing based on current themes.

Specifically, our Scenario Report for March 2026 considers sensitivities for ACCU supply, including (further) constraints on the Integrated Farm Land Management (IFLM) and Soil Carbon methods. Analysis also considers the impact of “smoothed” backcrediting under the new Savanna Fire Management (SFM) method, and the combined impact of SFM backcrediting with constraints on IFLM issuance – which we view as the “most likely” combination of modelled sensitivities.

This report is published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Access the reports below, or