Our latest Carbon Supply Outlook (CSO) for the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market has now been published.
This semi-annual CSO presents our expectations for medium-term ACCU supply by method over a rolling 10-year horizon, providing an in-depth view of supply side development and the assumptions deployed in our quarterly Carbon Market Outlook.
This report implements the following updates since our last CSO:
- Implementation of landfill gas baseline reforms and crediting period extensions, assumed to begin in FY26. Landfill gas baselines are set to 36%, increasing by 1.9% thereafter, reducing issuance particularly from large early projects. Modelled crediting period extensions see projects continue issuing into 2030s rather than mid-2020s.
- Updates to Plantation Forestry modelling at sub-method level based on schedule and rotation length, each with individual economics and deployment rates based on forestry revenue streams.
- Revised historical ACCU holdings by the Regulator, with a large increase in Safeguard and Safeguard-related holdings, slightly reducing expected buying demand in the short-term and reducing market signals for new supply.
- Updated gateway check failure rates for HIR projects to account for increased evidentiary requirements, adding an additional failure rate to years 5 and 15.
- Delayed launch of the IFLM method from FY25 to FY26 with updated registration limits to reflect regulatory delays.
- Incorporation of the government’s 20% minimum delivery rule for Fixed Delivery CACs, reducing available supply.
Noting the semi-annual timeline of this deep-dive supply publication, the above updates are already reflected in our quarterly Carbon Market Outlook.
Analysis presents our Central Case forecast for medium-term ACCU supply, or in-house view of market development. This is complemented by the analysis of risks and supports for forecast outcomes along with detailed discussion of our modelling approach and key assumptions by methodology.
This report is published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Access the report below, or take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.
