Carbon Markets

OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity price and transition risk forecast – Q3 July 2026

RepuTex’s latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) is now available.

​The AEO provides a quarterly assessment of wholesale electricity prices and transition risk across the National Electricity Market (NEM), supporting procurement and investment decision-making for large C&I energy users.

​This edition introduces RepuTex’s Transition Risk Index (TRI) – a proprietary forward-looking indicator that measures where and when system risk and instability is building across each NEM region, helping energy buyers identify changing procurement conditions beyond wholesale price forecasts alone.

​This report includes:

  • Review of wholesale electricity prices and market developments across the NEM over the previous quarter.
  • Transition Risk Index (TRI) by region, including historical and forecast system risk, underlying risk drivers, and procurement implications.
  • Wholesale electricity price forecasts for all NEM regions over medium-term (16 quarters) and long-term horizons (25-years).
  • Alternative scenarios, including AEMO 2026 ISP reference pathways and delivery timing sensitivities.
  • Regional emissions intensity and Residual Mix Factors (RMFs) supporting electricity emissions and renewable procurement analysis.
  • Forecast NEM fundamentals, including renewable and storage deployment, transmission delivery, thermal exits and generation mix.

Access and export interactive datasets via our NEM Forecast Explorer within EnergyIQ >>

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