Carbon Markets

OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity price forecast by region – April 2026

Our latest wholesale electricity price forecasts for the National Electricity Market (NEM) are now available on EnergyIQ.

This release provides an expanded view of future NEM development, introducing a new Current Pathway case based on observed market conditions, alongside an extended suite of ISP-aligned scenarios (Slower Growth, Step Change, Accelerated Transition).

Published datasets include:

  • Current Pathway wholesale price outlook, reflecting market development under current conditions, alongside alternative trajectories aligned to AEMO’s draft 2026 ISP scenarios
  • Regional price forecasts across all NEM markets (NSW, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC), covering both medium-term horizons (next 16 quarters) and long-term pathways (to 2045)
  • Forecasts for changes in capacity and generation mix by region
  • Grid emissions intensity by region under the Current Pathway and all ISP benchmark scenarios

Our updated outlook for renewable energy certificates (LGCs and REGOs) is available in our Renewable Energy Market Outlook (REMO), also published today.

The Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) report will be released separately in the coming weeks, with an updated format providing deeper analysis of price risk, timing dynamics and implications for market participants.

To access our wholesale electricity price and NEM forecasts, click here >>

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