OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2020-40 (Q2 FY19-20)

The Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) presents RepuTex’s forecasts for price development in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over both medium- (four years) and long-term horizons (20 years). The AEO is published in the last month of each quarter (September, December, March, June), representing a forecast for the quarter ahead, and an update to our long-term expectations. The publication provides:

  • an outlook for wholesale electricity prices, for each region of the NEM, over medium- (16 quarters) and long-term horizons (to 2040);
  • an outlook for LGC prices to 2040;
  • forecasts for market outcomes, such as change in capacity and generation mix;
  • detailed discussion of important input assumptions; and
  • analysis of the major factors impacting the electricity market in the forecast period.

Parts one and two of this report summarise our modelling approach and assumptions, including key inputs and policy settings. Part three presents the primary outcomes of our AEO, including medium-term and long-term electricity price forecasts, key market drivers, change in capacity and generation mix. Part four presents our outlook for LGC prices. Appendices provide define additional assumptions and provide a summary of our proprietary National Electricity Market Renewable Energy Simulator (NEMRES). Please refer to the Excel report for all forecasts and modelling outcomes in data form.

Please contact our Client Services team for access to this report.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Not a subscriber?

To learn more about our research services for the Australian energy and emissions markets, click the button below, or email our subscriptions team.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • The King Review: Government steps toward a ‘grey’ baseline and credit scheme

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The federal government today released the findings of its Expert Panel review (the King Review), […]

    Analyst Alerts, Research Insights | May 19th, 2020
  • UPDATE: Australia’s Expert Panel Climate Policy Review – What to Expect?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    2020 is shaping up as (another) key year for Australian climate policy, with the government’s […]

    Research Insights | May 13th, 2020
  • Where to for wholesale electricity prices under a 1.5-2°C “Step Change” scenario?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In part two of this two-part series we discuss our long-term expectations for wholesale electricity […]

    Research Insights | April 28th, 2020
  • OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2020-40 (Q3 FY20)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Our Q3 FY19-20 Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for medium- and long-term price development […]

    Research Insights | April 17th, 2020
  • Could COVID-19 pandemic create a ‘perfect storm’ for wholesale electricity prices?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In part one of this two-part series we discuss our medium-term expectations for the National […]

    Analyst Update, Research Insights | April 16th, 2020
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone