Electricity Outlook

OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2020-40 (Q2 FY19-20)

The Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) presents RepuTex’s forecasts for price development in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over both medium- (four years) and long-term horizons (20 years). The AEO is published in the last month of each quarter (September, December, March, June), representing a forecast for the quarter ahead, and an update to our long-term expectations. The publication provides:

  • an outlook for wholesale electricity prices, for each region of the NEM, over medium- (16 quarters) and long-term horizons (to 2040);
  • an outlook for LGC prices to 2040;
  • forecasts for market outcomes, such as change in capacity and generation mix;
  • detailed discussion of important input assumptions; and
  • analysis of the major factors impacting the electricity market in the forecast period.

Parts one and two of this report summarise our modelling approach and assumptions, including key inputs and policy settings. Part three presents the primary outcomes of our AEO, including medium-term and long-term electricity price forecasts, key market drivers, change in capacity and generation mix. Part four presents our outlook for LGC prices. Appendices provide define additional assumptions and provide a summary of our proprietary National Electricity Market Renewable Energy Simulator (NEMRES). Please refer to the Excel report for all forecasts and modelling outcomes in data form.

Please contact our Client Services team for access to this report.

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