In H2 2025, RepuTex was engaged by the Productivity Commission to support its inquiry into “Investing in cheaper, cleaner energy and the net-zero transformation”, with a specific focus on the future design of the Safeguard Mechanism.
Analysis was undertaken to assess whether lowering the coverage threshold for the Safeguard Mechanism from 100,000 to 25,000 tonnes of CO₂-e per annum could reduce the cost to industry of achieving Australia’s emissions reduction objectives, along with potential impacts on Australia’s carbon market.
Modelling compared a reference case under the current threshold with an expanded coverage scenario over the 2031–2035 period, drawing on RepuTex’s technology cost curves and uptake models to estimate the average cost of abatement and future carbon market dynamics under each policy setting.
Results demonstrate that expanding the coverage of the Safeguard Mechanism would materially increase access to lower-cost abatement opportunities, accelerating on-site decarbonisation, and reducing reliance on offsets, delivering a materially lower average cost of abatement.
This Summary Report (PDF) presents the key findings from modelling submitted to the Productivity Commission.
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