The Australian carbon spot price ended the 2020 calendar year down 4.5 per cent year-on-year, reaching $16.53/t on December 31, down from $17.28/t on January 1 2020. The price of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) is currently $16.55/t.
Since climbing back above $16/t in early September, the trading range for ACCUs has narrowed in recent months, closing to $16.50-$16.55/t since early November on the back of low traded volumes and thin demand over the holiday period.
Over the year ahead, the prospect of a more ambitious long-term emissions target could lead to a more bullish outlook for ACCU prices, underpinned by momentum for the United States to return to the Paris Agreement, and expectations for laggard nations such as Australia to commit to more ambitious decarbonisation targets.
Figure 1: RepuTex ACCU spot price (12-month)
Australia leaves 2030 emissions target unchanged, but net-zero pressure mounts
On New Year’s Eve, the Australian Government communicated its first update to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, resubmitting its existing plan to reduce 2005-level emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030.
NDCs are submitted every five years in order to enhance the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement by ratcheting up individual and
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