All eyes last week were on the Clean Energy Regulator’s release of emissions and liability information for FY24 compliance under the Safeguard Mechanism, with ACCU prices flip-flopping as traders struggled to digest a large volume of new information.
In this update, we summarise the key data highlights within the FY24 Safeguard Mechanism compliance data, and discuss expected market impacts.
Our Carbon Weekly report breaks down activity in the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets (spot and derivatives) over the past week, including key trends and drivers, our latest pricing and benchmarks, and our daily forward curves.
Key takeaways from FY24 Safeguard Mechanism compliance data
Below, our analysts summarise the key data highlights within the Clean Energy Regulator’s FY24 compliance dataset and discuss expected market impacts.
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Were there any surprises in the data?
Fundamentally, data for the first compliance period met expectations. Our modelling proved close to the mark, with our forecast for total covered emissions and SMCs accurate to under 1%, while total baselines were slightly higher than expected, due to the slightly deeper uptake of TEBA compensation, flowing through to total liabilities.
At a more granular level, our bottom-up facility modelling proved highly accurate, with sectoral
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