ACCU prices moved in a choppy pattern last week, with a 5-week low in activity seeing our key price assessments close marginally lower. This was balanced by a burst of activity in the derivatives market, with weekly forward volumes reaching a 12-month high as entities continue to position for upcoming Safeguard Mechanism compliance.
Elsewhere, we provide an update on the active pipeline for new method development and period reviews into year-end and Q1 2026.
RepuTex’s Carbon Weekly report breaks down activity in the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets (spot and derivatives) over the past week, including key trends and drivers, our latest pricing and benchmarks, and our daily forward curves.
ACCU prices choppy on the week, close marginally lower, as seasonal momentum briefly wavers
Total traded volumes across the Australian exchange-traded and over the counter (OTC) carbon markets rose to 625k last week (+118k WoW), despite reduced activity, interrupted by the Singapore Carbon Market & Investor Forum (Thursday – Friday, 25k spot total). Weekly totals remained below both the compliance year-to-date average (767k) and the equivalent average in October 2024 (820k).
Spot market volumes dropped to a 5-week low of 315k (-68k WoW), again led by Generic No-Avoided Deforestation ACCUs (44%) followed by a YTD high proportion of HIR ACCUs (37%), with smaller contributions from Generic ACCUs (15%) and Plantation Forestry ACCUs (4%).
Prices briefly held steady at year-to-date highs of $38.50/t on Monday despite minimal activity (9k spot), before zig zagging over a more active Tuesday across both spot (200k, 66% of weekly total) and forward markets (300k, 99% of weekly total).
Sellers led prices down to weekly traded lows of $38.00/t by midday to test recently steady upward momentum, though feedback maintained a well-supported market – as prices recovered to $38.20/t by Tuesday close, nudging marginally higher Wednesday to $38.40/t. Prices retraced to $38.25/t over Thursday and Friday amidst fading liquidity, coinciding with the Carbon Market & Investor Forum in Singapore.
A (V25-26 ID Specific) Plantation Forestry ACCUs trade was observed Wednesday at a $0.15/t premium to Generic (Market Close) – lifting from the previously flat spread following trading in late August.
RepuTex’s Generic ACCUs (Market Close) assessment fell $0.10/t WoW to $38.40/t, level with our Generic VWAP assessment ($38.40/t, -$0.05/t WoW) – breaking the sustained upward momentum observed since September. RepuTex’s HIR ACCU (Market Close) assessment settled at $38.25/t (-$0.15/t WoW), level with our HIR VWAP assessment at $38.25/t (-$0.15/t WoW). Our Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) Market Close settled at $37.90/t (-$0.10/t WoW).
DCCEEW publishes interim estimate for 25/26 DPUP under the Safeguard Mechanism
The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) has today published its first interim estimate of the 2025-2026 Safeguard Mechanism Default Prescribed Unit Price (DPUP).
RepuTex market data underpins the calculation of the DPUP – which sets the standard price for prescribed carbon units under the Safeguard Mechanism.
In 2024-25, RepuTex’s coverage of the reported OTC market was 1.8x the trade volume any other single market data source. The DPUP is therefore calculated based on the widest universe of information available for the Australian OTC carbon market, incorporating data for ACCUs and SMCs traded on the spot market, weighted by volume.
Based on market data provided by RepuTex from July 1st, 2025 – September 30th, 2025, DCCEEW’s interim estimate of the Safeguard Mechanism DPUP is $36.34/t.
This is $0.29/t (+0.8%) above the 2024-25 DPUP of $36.05/t, and $2.06/t below (-5.6%) current market levels per Friday’s Generic (Market Close) of $38.40/t.
Burst of activity delivers 12-month high in weekly forward volumes, coalescing around 2026 compliance deadline
Derivatives volumes rose to 310k last week (+185k WoW) – driven entirely by a 12-month high in weekly OTC forward activity. Weekly volumes climbed above the compliance year-to-date weekly average (288k) for the first time in five weeks but remained below the equivalent average for October 2025 (439k).
Tuesday saw Generic No-AD trades for February 2026 (75k, $38.80/t) and March 2026 (150k, $38.80/t), at 4.7% and 3.8% cost of carries (CoC) against our Generic (Market Close) spot marker, respectively, marginally wider than activity seen over prior weeks (circa. 3%).
HIR ACCUs traded further out the curve, with 75k exchanged for December 2026 at $40.00/t – a 4.5% CoC against Generic (Market Close). Yet the forward term structure is still skewed towards this compliance year – with an estimated 62% of volumes scheduled for settlement prior to March 31st.
Savanna Fire Management (SFM) ACCUs traded on Wednesday (March 2026, 10k) at $38.90/t (3.2% CoC) – reaffirming non-indigenous SFM units continue to price closely in line with lowest-cost Generic ACCUs.
The fall in our Generic (Market Close) spot marker (-$0.10/t WoW) contrasted uplift throughout the RepuTex OTC forward curve, as our forward assessments (March 2026 – March 2030) increased by +$0.12/t WoW to +$1.35/t WoW.
No trades were recorded on either the ASX or CME futures markets.
Despite the $0.10/t WoW decline in the Generic (Market Close) spot marker, short to medium dated ASX settlements (March 2026 – 2028) gained marginally – lifting from +$0.10/t to +$0.20/t WoW – steepening the ASX futures curve.
CME settlements declined in parallel by $0.25/t WoW to marginally flatten the curve.
Soil Carbon review outcome nears – potential implications for IFLM method scope
With the ongoing consultation on the final design of the two new Savanna Fire Management methods facing key decision points before closing in early November, attention is expected to shift back to the ongoing design of the Integrated Land and Farm Management (IFLM) method, with multiple sources indicating that the periodic review of the Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) method is expected to conclude as soon as this week.
The outcome of the review will inform the final framing of the new IFLM method – with Soil Carbon one of four core modules able to be ‘stacked’ within an IFLM project.
Under DCCEEW’s current guidance, an IFLM draft to ERAC is scheduled by the end of this calendar year – with any complexity surrounding the SOC review representing a potential risk to the IFLM timetable (among other ongoing issues for the IFLM method).
Multiple sources have also indicated that the Landfill Gas method is expected to be finalised by year-end – rounding out an active method pipeline heading into 2026.
Mounting pressure to postpone EU ETS2 implementation until 2030
A coalition of EU member states are pushing to delay the introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme for road transport and heating fuels (ETS2) – which is due to start applying as of 2027. A draft letter backed by several EU countries – has called for a “targeted postponement” of the scheme’s entry until at least 2030.
Whilst the letter reaffirmed support for EU climate neutrality and carbon pricing, it raised “deep concern” over the design of the scheme, warning of social and economic disruptions linked to high inflation, energy poverty and underdeveloped clean fuel technologies.
The letter also argues a delay “would not signal a weakening of ambition”, but instead enable technical adjustments to the ETS2 – such as frontloading revenues to enable earlier decarbonisation investments, whilst giving member states more time to scale up low-carbon alternatives. Although the European Commission reiterated its determination to proceed with 2027 start date, concerns around price volatility and political backlash are growing. The issue is expected to be raised at next week’s EU leaders’ summit, focussed on the bloc’s 2040 climate target.
Pricing across the voluntary carbon market broadly trended higher last week, as Category 1 (nature-based) prices rose most significantly, lifting 17.8% WoW following gains across both REDD+ (+3.4% WoW) and ARR units (+2.3% WoW). Category 2 (energy and small household) credits gained 8.5% WoW, whilst Category 3 (renewables) was the only major project category to decline (-1.8% WoW).
No exchange traded volumes were recorded across major contracts, as the GEO (-2.4% WoW), NGEO (-1.4% WoW) and ICE CORSIA (Dec 2025) contracts all declined marginally.
If you have any questions on this article, contact our Client Services team via email.
Kind Regards,
The RepuTex Team
Australian Energy Markets
