Carbon Markets

UPDATE: New support levels firm as HIR ACCUs tested; Timing of Australia’s 2035 NDC may materially impact H2 ACCU prices

Spot market volumes lifted last week as active participants continued to test key levels for HIR ACCUs and Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs), with the discount for SMCs continuing to narrow, while HIR units similarly traded at a discount on recurring late trades. Meanwhile, analysis indicates that the timing of Australia’s 2035 NDC announcement may materially impact ACCU spot pricing over H2.

RepuTex’s Carbon Weekly report breaks down activity in the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets (spot and derivatives) over the past week, including key trends and drivers, our latest pricing and benchmarks, and our daily forward curves.

Spot market stabilises at new support, HIR shows discount to Generic ACCUs on late, low volume trades

Total traded volumes across the Australian exchange-traded and over the counter (OTC) carbon markets increased to 677k last week (+260k WoW), in line with the current compliance year-to-date weekly average (682k) and well above the weekly average for the same period last year (296k over July 2024).

Spot market volumes lifted to 325k (+50k WoW), led by Generic No-Avoided Deforestation ACCUs (57%), followed by HIR ACCUs (18%), Generic ACCUs (17%) and Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) (8%).

Monday through Wednesday saw consistent spot market activity (daily

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