REPORT: Setting the Clean Energy Target – Implications for industry & Australia’s 2030 target

The ambition of the government’s Clean Energy Target (CET) will not only establish the timeline for the phase out of emissions from Australia’s electricity sector, but will also have implications for the ‘effort sharing’ contribution of all sectors of the economy to meet Australia’s 26-28 per cent emissions target by 2030.

In this update, we examine a series of target scenarios for the CET, analysing the impact on the generation sector – and all sectors of the economy through to 2030.

Key findings include:

• • Modelling indicates that a “minimum CET” of 28 per cent would reduce national emissions by 44 Mt of CO2e in 2030, an 8 per cent cut on 2005 emissions levels. This would leave a shortfall of 119 Mt to meet Australia’s 2030 target.

• • Notably, such a trajectory would result in electricity emissions being phased out by 2095 – 2101, far later than a target of net-zero emissions prior to 2050 under the Paris Agreement.

• • Should a 28 per cent target be applied across all sectors of the economy, modelling indicates that Australia’s emissions growth sectors – such as the direct combustion