UPDATE: The Road to 2030 – The Shift from Fugitives & Coal-gen

Despite adopting a ‘soft’ emissions target in comparison to its global peers, the Australian economy will still be required to undergo a significant transition in order to meet the government’s new post-2020 emissions goal.

The Electricity Generation, Fugitive Emissions and Forestry sectors will play a critical role in the transformation of the Australian economy in order to meet Australia’s new post-2020 emissions reduction target, contributing over 50 per cent of Australia’s emissions growth to 2030, while at the same time representing Australia’s greatest opportunity for emissions reductions.

Notably, each of these industries will require policy intervention to unlock its abatement potential, while inversely, even a minimum long-term target of 26 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 is unlikely to be met should this abatement not be unlocked.

Subsequently, emissions reduction opportunities from these three key sectors are critical to meeting Australia’s new post-2020 pledge. In this Market Update, we examine the abatement potential of each of these opportunities in detail, along with the associated policy implications.

Key findings:

• Government Business As Usual (BAU) projections indicate that Australia will be required to reduce emissions by over 2,500 million tonnes between 2015 and 2030 to meet the new emissions target.